GDHQNHL15_f-Advanced Metrics 4

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be measured, too. So, if a player is on the ice for six shots on goal, four that miss and two that are blocked, his Corsi-plus number is 12. If, while he is playing, the opponents have a total of five shots (on net, missed, blocked), he has a Corsi-minus statistic of five. That makes his total Corsi differential a plus-seven. Or, if you want to look at it in terms of percentages, he has a 70.6 percent (12 divided by 17). Another enhanced metric employed is Fenwick, which does the same thing as Corsi but does not include blocked shots in its calculation. The goal is to measure effective ice time, the better to understand how a player helps (or hurts) his team. In baseball, advanced metrics mavens use WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as the consummate measurement of a player’s worth. Rather than look at statistics like batting average, home runs and RBI, WAR takes into account defense, baserunning and the ability to throw to create a number that calculates complete worth, rather than a snapshot. Advanced hockey statistics attempt to measure a player’s role in possession and the idea that shooting percentage isn’t always an accurate measurement of someone’s value. The goal is determining which players fit best on which teams, a good reason why so many clubs are reticent about discussing their forays into this new world. “There are some formulas out there already,” Dubas says. “We can collect information from game logs and build our own formulas, too.” Perhaps the most important thing that can be measured is a team or individual’s success in possession of the puck. You can’t score without it, right? And a lot of the stats that are growing in popularity rely on the ability to hold onto the disc. You can’t shoot without it, so a Corsi-plus is out of the question for players whose teams have trouble possessing the puck. It would stand to reason, then, that measuring giveaways and takeaways is pretty important, too. Not that there isn’t an inherent risk in that practice, since measurement of those stats can be subjective, based on who his calculating them. Since there is a variance based on statisticians in different rinks, the giveaway/takeaway index isn’t always considered as seriously as Corsi or Fenwick numbers. For goalies, the big number is save percentage. Even more important is even-strength save percentage, because that allows for the elimination of special teams’ strengths or weaknesses. A goalie that piles up a lot of wins might just be benefitting from a potent offense and might be a detriment in a tight game. Anything over a .925 figure is considered strong, and if a goalie gets past .930, he’s in serious Vezina Trophy consideration. How teams use these numbers is entirely up to them. Some franchises might be concerned primarily with puck possession over everything else. Another may value takeaways for its forwards and defensemen highly. Just as Dean Lombardi built the Kings by valuing powerful forwards from whom it was tough to shake loose the puck, so might another GM favor speed over everything else and a third want tough grinders, like Columbus has accumulated. There is no set formula for how to use these statistics, but there is no doubt teams are paying more attention to them and figuring out ways to make them work for their purposes. “They provide a tremendous amount of content that allows you to focus on the ENTERING HIS THIRD SEASON WITH HIGH CORSI RATINGS, VLADIMIR TARASENKO IS POISED TO HAVE A BIG SEASON. Scott Rovak/NHL/Getty Images process on the ice,” Dubas says. “You can look at the outcomes every night, and they can mislead you. You might be getting lucky. “These numbers allow you to measure which players play well together and give you strategies that can help you execute the process better. It helps you decide how to procure talent and how to utilize it.” And move out of the analytic Stone Age. TOMAS TATAR HAS LED THE RED WINGS IN CORSI LAST SEASON, WHICH MEANS DETROIT IS IN POSITION TO SCORE WITH HIM ON THE ICE. Gregory Shamus/NHL/Getty Images


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